People talk about Montgomery County as one place, but from inside a service truck it is at least four. Inside the Beltway you get the oldest housing in the county: the Takoma Park frame Victorians and four squares that went up as rail suburb lots in the 1880s and 1890s, and the 1920s through 1940s bungalows and center hall colonials on the older Silver Spring streets. Push out along Route 29 and Georgia Ave and the county turns into postwar brick, ramblers and split levels built between roughly 1948 and 1968. Keep going west and north toward Bethesda and Potomac and the lots get larger, the houses get larger, and the mechanical systems multiply along with them.
Downtown Silver Spring and downtown Bethesda add a fifth category that has little in common with the rest. These are mid-rise and high-rise condominium buildings where the equipment is a fan coil or a water source heat pump in a closet, condensate risers are shared between stacked units, and the association decides what can be changed and when. A homeowner in one of those buildings has a narrower set of options than a homeowner half a mile away in a 1930s colonial. The useful conversation there starts with what the building allows, not with what equipment looks best on paper.
The reason this matters is that a county wide rule of thumb means very little here. A three ton system in a Wood Acres cape and a three ton system in a Falconhurst colonial are doing completely different work, through completely different duct, with completely different return air. We size by load calculation rather than by square footage or by whatever came out, because the range of construction inside this one county is wide enough that the shortcuts fail more often than they hold. What is constant is the climate: humid summers with dew points in the low 70s, and winters mostly in the 20s and 30s with a few single digit snaps each year.