Duct systems leak, and they leak more than people expect. Testing on typical residential systems commonly finds that something in the range of a fifth to a third of the air the blower moves never reaches the rooms it was intended for. It escapes at the seams of the main trunk, at every takeoff where a branch leaves it, at the boot where a duct meets a floor or ceiling register, and at joints that were never sealed with anything in the first place. The leaks nearest the equipment are under the highest pressure and lose the most.
There are two separate costs. Supply side leaks dump air you already paid to heat or cool into an attic, crawlspace, garage or wall cavity. Return side leaks are arguably worse, because the return is under suction and pulls whatever surrounds it into the system: 130 degree attic air in July, damp crawlspace air with whatever is growing down there, garage air carrying exhaust and stored chemicals. That gets filtered lightly and distributed through the house. Leaks also unbalance pressures between rooms, which drives more outside air in through the shell and adds to the load the equipment already carries.
Around here the housing stock makes this predictable. The brick ramblers and split levels built across Montgomery and Prince George's Counties from the 1950s through the 1970s use trunk and branch systems: one large rectangular sheet metal trunk leaving the furnace with smaller round branches tapped off it. Those joints were often sealed with nothing, or with cloth tape that dried out and let go decades ago. Many of the same houses use panned returns, where sheet metal is nailed across the bottom of floor joists so the framing cavity itself becomes the duct. That construction leaks into wall and floor cavities by design.